Lee Morof's Real Estate Blog

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on construction spending, written testimony from Fed chair Jerome Powell and data on public and private sector jobs and national unemployment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Fed Chair Hints at Rate Hikes in Written Testimony

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that consistent rate hikes of the Fed’s target interest rate range will likely occur throughout this year, but he said that the Fed would proceed carefully. Analysts interpreted Mr. Powell’s remarks to mean that he would limit each rate hike to 0.25 percent but could be higher depending on the pace of inflation.

Inflation rose by 7.50 percent year-over-year in January; this was the highest inflation rate since 1982. Chairman Powell said the Fed wanted to prevent persistent high inflation while promoting sustainable economic expansion and a strong labor market. The war in Ukraine could lead to faster inflation as Russia is the world’s second-largest producer of oil.

Mortgage Rates, Fall, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 13 basis points to 3.76 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were also 13 basis points lower at 3.01 percent and rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 2.91 percent and were seven basis points lower on average. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell last week with 215,000 new claims filed as compared to 233,000 jobless claims filed in the previous week. 1.48 million continuing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.47 million continuing claims filed.

Jobs Data Shows Mixed Results

Public and private sector jobs data and the national unemployment rate reflected a strong labor market. The government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report tracks public and private-sector job growth and reported 678,000 jobs were added in February as compared to expectations of 440,000 jobs added and January’s reading of 481,000 jobs added.

The ADP jobs report includes only private-sector jobs data; 475,000 jobs were added in February as compared to predictions of 400,000 jobs added and January’s reading of 509,000 private-sector jobs added. The national unemployment rate dropped to 3.80 percent; analysts expected an unemployment rate of 3.90 percent and January’s jobless rate of 4.00 percent.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on job openings and quits, inflation, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reports included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets and the monthly post-meeting statement from Federal Reserve policymakers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also gave a press conference. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

Builder Confidence in Housing Markets Rises by One Point in December

Homebuilder confidence in current national housing market conditions rose one point to an index reading of 84 in December and met analysts’ expectations. December’s reading was the highest since February. Component readings for the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index were lower in December. Builder confidence in current markets dropped to 90 from 92; builder confidence in housing market conditions in the next six months dropped by one point to 84 and builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments fell three points to an index reading of 70.

Regional readings for builder confidence were mixed. The Northeast reported a 10 point gain in confidence from 69 to 79; the Midwestern region reported builder confidence fell by one point to 74. The South reported a two-point gain to 89 and the West posted a one-point decline in builder confidence in current housing market conditions to an index reading of 87.

Builder confidence was boosted by high demand for homes coupled with low inventories of available homes. Home prices rose rapidly in 2021, but predictions of higher mortgage rates and affordability concerns could slow the pace of buyer demand and builder confidence in 2022.

Federal Reserve Policymakers Hold Benchmark Rate Range Steady

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve issued its post-meeting statement and said it would hold its target interest rate range at 0.00 to 0.25 percent. The Committee committed to using its “full range of tools” to support the U.S. economy and promote the Fed’s dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and price stability. The FOMC statement indicated that economic indicators were stronger, job gains were solid and unemployment has fallen significantly.

The pandemic continues to fuel supply and demand disruptions and inflation. The Committee cautioned that emerging variants of the coronavirus could cause increased risk to the economy and it would make necessary adjustments to economic policy based on changing economic and public health conditions.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a press conference after the FOMC meeting and said that inflation was expected to exceed the Fed’s target growth rate of two percent weel into next year. While wages have risen, Mr. Powell said that wage growth was not a major contributor to inflation.  Job gains averaged 378,000 jobs per month and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent in November. Chair Powell said that labor force participation was negatively impacted by an aging workforce, retirements, and factors related to the pandemic including caregiving and concerns about emerging variants of the virus.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Show Mixed Readings

Freddie Mac reported mixed movement for average mortgage rates as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose two basis points to 3.12 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points on average to 2.34 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.45 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

First-time jobless claims rose by 206,000 initial claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 188,000 initial jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.85 million claims from the prior week’s reading of two million ongoing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation, and consumer sentiment. 

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. President Biden announced his nomination of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell for a second term.  Financial markets were closed Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Single-Family Home Sales Increase in October

The Commerce Department reported sales of new homes rose in October with 745,000 new homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. October sales fell short of the 800,000 new home sales expected by analysts but surpassed September’s reading of 742,000 new homes sold.

The National Association of Realtors® reported 6.34 million previously owned homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis in October. Sales of previously-owned homes rose by 0.80 percent from September to October and exceeded expectations of 6.20 million sales and September’s reading of 6.29 million sales of previously-owned homes. Real estate pros said that high demand for homes and strong job growth contributed to October’s reading.

Slim inventories of homes for sale and rising home prices continued to sideline some buyers; competition with cash buyers also caused difficulties for would-be buyers who relied on mortgage loans. 6.34 million pre-owned homes were sold year-over-year in October and exceeded expectations of 6.20 million sales and September’s reading of 6.29 million pre-owned homes sold.

LawrenceYun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®, said,  “Inflationary pressures such as fast rising rents and increasing consumer prices may have some prospective buyers seeking the protection of a fixed consistent mortgage payment.” Rapidly rising home prices challenged would-be home buyers as the median price for a single-family home rose to $353,900 in October, which was more than 13 percent higher year-over-year. The inventory of available homes equaled September’s inventory with a 2.40  month supply of homes for sale. Real estate pros typically consider a six-month supply of homes for sale as a sign of balanced markets.

Mortgage Rates Little Changed as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported no change in the average rate of 3.10 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose three basis points to 2.42 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell two basis points to 2.47 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 199,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 260,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 270,000 first-time jobless claims filed. 2.05 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to 2.11 million ongoing claims filed in the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from S&P Case-Shiller Housing Market Indices, along with reporting on pending home sales and construction spending. Public and private-sector job reports and the national unemployment rate will also be released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Last week’s scheduled economic reports included readings on inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Consumer Price Index: June Inflation Grows at Fastest Pace Since 2008

June’s Consumer Price Index showed the fastest pace of inflationary growth in 13 years; inflation grew by 5.40 percent on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Used car sales accounted for one-third of the growth, but prices also rose for clothes, food, energy, and travel/hospitality. The year-over-year inflation rate for May was 5.00 percent.

Inflation grew by 0.90 percent month-to-month, which exceeded analyst’s expectations of 0.50 percent growth and 0.60 percent growth in May. The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors also grew by 0.90 percent in June as compared to a month-to-month reading of 0.70 percent in May. Analysts expressed concern that the rapid pace of inflation may not slow as quickly as the Federal Reserve predicted.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies Before House Financial Services Panel

Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained the Federal Reserve’s earlier prediction that the pace of inflation would ease, but not immediately: “Inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating.”Mr.Powell said that inflationary growth has come in at a faster pace than the Fed was hoping to see.

Chair Powell identified three factors contributing to current inflationary growth. Weak inflationary growth during the pandemic will drop out of the year-over-year calculation; Production and supply chain constraints have led to sharp price increases after the pandemic. The third factor is a surge in demand for services as the economy reopens.

The Fed Chair said that “it’s a pretty narrow group of things that are producing these high readings.”

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported mixed mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.88 percent and were two basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two basis points to an average of 2.22 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell by five basis points to 2.47 percent on average; Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-yar fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

New jobless claims fell to 360,000 initial claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 386,000 claims filed. Data for continuing jobless claims were not updated last week.

The University of Michigan reported no change in its Consumer Sentiment Index for July with an index reading of 85.5. Analysts expected a reading of 86.3.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, reports on housing starts and building permits, and data on existing home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.