Lee Morof's Real Estate Blog

Last week’s scheduled economic news included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes and consumer confidence. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

COVID-19 Requirements Impact Home Sales

Widespread state and local requirements for sheltering at home negatively impacted home sales in March. New homes sold at an annual pace of 627,000 sales as compared to 741,000 sales reported in February. Analysts estimated 628,000 sales for March according to the Commerce Department.

The National Association of Realtors® reported lower sales of previously-owned homes in March with an annual pace of 5.27 million sales. February’s annual sales rate was 5.76 million homes. Sales of pre-owned homes exceeded analysts’expectations of 5.24 million existing homes sold annually.

Annual sales calculated for March were 8.50 percent lower than February’s reading. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®, said that the organization expected home sales to fall in March and expected fewer home sales in April.

The COVID-19 outbreak impacted both home sellers and buyers as restrictions on open houses and home tours limited sellers’ability to show their homes; prospective buyers delayed their home shopping activities due to COVID-19 restrictions and job losses related to business closures.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported higher fixed mortgage rates last week; rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages dropped. The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose two basis points to 3.33 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose six basis points and averaged 2.86 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell by six basis points on average to 3.28 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims remained far above average last week but were lower than the prior week. 4.43 million initial unemployment claims were filed last week as compared to 5.24 million claims filed the prior week. Analysts expected a reading of four million new claims filed last week.

April’s Consumer Sentiment Index reading fell to an index reading of 71.8 from the March reading of 89.1 Analysts expected a reading of 69.3. The University of Michigan said that the Index reading from March to April showed the steepest drop in Index history. Analysts said that April’s reading indicated an economic recession.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, pending home sales, and the post-meeting statement of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a press conference after the FOMC statement. Construction spending data will be released along with weekly readings for mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on pending home sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, and Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on national unemployment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Pending Home Sales Slow in February Before Coronavirus Took Hold

The National Association of Realtors® reported fewer pending home sales in February as the coronavirus gained traction. Pending sales rose by 2.40 percent in February as compared to January’s growth rate of 5.30 percent. Before the outbreak, pending home sales gained momentum in all U.S. regions.

Pending home sales are sales for which signed purchase contracts were signed, but sales were not completed. Nationally, year-over-year pending sales in February were 9.40 percent higher than in 2019. Regional pending home sales all posted higher growth; The West reported  4.60 percent growth in February.

Pending home sales rose 4.50 percent in the Midwest and 2.80 percent in the Northeast. The South posted 0.10 percent growth in pending home sales.

Pending home sales typically indicate future completed sales, but the coronavirus pandemic was expected to suppress home sales as state and local authorities implemented “shelter in place” rules and all but essential business operations shut down.

Mortgage Rates Mixed  as New Jobless Claims Skyrocket

Freddie Mac reported lower fixed mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.33 percent and were 17 basis points lower. Mortgage rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.82 percent and were 10 basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.40 percent and were six basis points higher.

New jobless claims were unprecedented at 6.60 million first-time claims filed. Analysts expected 4 million new claims as compared to the prior week’s reading of 3.30 million initial jobless claims. The coronavirus pandemic negatively impacted job growth with the government’s Non-Farm Payrolls reporting 701,000 fewer public and private-sector jobs in March as compared to 214,000 jobs added in February.

ADP reported 27,000 fewer private-sector jobs in March as compared to 179,000 private-sector jobs added in February. The national unemployment rate rose from 3.50 percent in February to 4.40 percent in March. Analysts expect new jobless claims to rise in months ahead as the coronavirus spreads and more employers close their doors.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on job openings, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released. Please note that reporting may not appear as scheduled due to work stoppages caused by the pandemic.