Lee Morof's Real Estate Blog

Last week’s economic reports included readings on home price growth from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, data on new home sales, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published. 

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slower, but Prices Aren’t Falling

National home prices rose by a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 19.80 percent in August, which was incrementally lower than July’s year-over-year home price growth rate. Analysts said that rising mortgage rates caused some buyers to leave the market and eased demand in areas where bidding wars drove home prices beyond market value in some areas.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index reported a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of  19.70 percent growth for August home prices in metro areas included in the index. Home price growth was slower than July’s year-over-year reading of 20.00 percent. Phoenix, Arizona held the top position with year-over-year home price growth of 33.30 percent. San Diego, California maintained second place with year-over-year home price growth of 26.20 percent. Tampa, Florida displaced previous holders of third place with its home price growth rate of 25.90 percent.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at  S&P Dow Jones Indices, said: “Every one of our city and composite indices stands at its all-time high, and year-over-year price growth continues to be very strong, although moderating somewhat from last month’s levels.”

The Federal Housing Finance Administration, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, published similar results for home price growth in August. Lynn Fisher, deputy director for research and statistics at FHFA, said, “Annual house price gains remained extremely high in August, but the pace of month-over-month gains continues to decelerate…This suggests we may have seen the peak in annual home price  gains for the time being.”

Recent home price growth was driven by high demand for homes and limited supplies of new and pre-owned homes for sale, but rapidly rising home prices and mortgage rates sidelined some buyers.

Mortgage Rates Rise as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose five basis points to 3.14 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose four basis points and averaged 2.37 percent. The average rate for a  5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose two basis points to 2.56 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 281,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 291,000 new claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims filed also decreased with 2.24 million continuing claims filed as compared to 2.48 million continuing jobless claims filed during the prior week.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for October rose to an index reading of 71.7 as compared to September’s reading of 71.4. Analysts expected a reading of 71.9 for October.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending, the post-meeting statement, and a press conference from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Data on public and private-sector jobs will be released along with the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices reported new record gains for home prices in June. The National Home Price Index rose by a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 18.60 percent as compared to May’s home price increase rate of 16.80 percent. Home prices were 41 percent higher than they were during the 2006 housing boom; home price growth was driven by high demand for homes coupled with short supplies of homes for sale.  

20-City Home Price Index Posts Month-to-Month Home Price Gain of 2 Percent

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index posted a two percent gain in June as compared to May. Home prices rose by 19.10 percent on a seasonally adjusted annual basis in June;  all 20 cities included in the index reported higher home prices. Phoenix, Arizona held first place for home price growth in June with a year-over-year price gain of 29.30 percent. San Diego, California held second place in the 20-City Home Price Index with a year-over-year price gain of 27.10 percent and Seattle Washington followed with year-over-year home price growth of 25.00 percent.

All 20 cities posted higher home price gains in June than in May. Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said: “In June all 20 cities gained more in the 12 months ended in June than they did in the 12 months ended in May.”

Analysts Say Current Home Price Growth is Unsustainable

Rapidly rising home prices sidelined would-be homebuyers who expressed concerns over the fast pace of home sales, and limited choices of available homes. Cash buyers and bidding wars continued to challenge mortgage-dependent homebuyers, but low mortgage rates continued to draw homebuyers into the market.

Covid fueled an exodus from congested urban areas to less populated areas inland. Families who modified their lifestyles to include working from home and homeschooling their children needed larger homes. As workers switched from commuting to work to telecommuting, they were no longer constrained by physical proximity to their employers, but now that businesses and workplaces are reopening, it’s unknown how or if pre-covid housing and work trends will be re-established or if covid era home-based work and schooling options will expand.

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency released data on sales of single-family homes owned or mortgaged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose 17.4 percent from the second quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2021.FHFA reported that home prices rose 4.90 percent from the first quarter of 2021 through the second quarter of 2021, and were 1.60 percent higher for June 2021 than in May.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued along with data on sales of previously-owned homes. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Home Builders Index Rises One Point in February

Homebuilder confidence rose by one index point to 84 according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. Readings over 50 in the Housing Market Index indicate that most homebuilders are confident about U.S. housing market conditions.

Component readings for the housing market index were mixed in February. Builder confidence in current market conditions for new single-family homes was unchanged with an index reading of 90; builder confidence in new home sales for the next six months fell by three points to a reading of 83. Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family developments rose four points to an index reading of 72.  Before the pandemic, readings for buyer traffic in new housing developments were typically below 50, but the pandemic has created more interest in new single-family homes as families moved from congested urban areas to suburban areas.

Builders cited ongoing concerns including rising materials costs and affordability issues for first-time and low-income homebuyers.

Housing Starts Lower in January as Building Permits Rise

The Commerce Department reported fewer housing starts in January based on 1.58 million starts reported on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, 1.67 million starts were reported in December and analysts expected a pace of 1.68 million housing starts for January.

Building permits issued rose in January to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.88 million permits. Analysts expected a reading of 1.67 million permits issued based on 1.70 million permits issued in December. Winter weather conditions likely contributed to fewer housing starts, but builders took out more building permits in anticipation of improving weather and continuing demand for homes due to shortages of available homes for sale and higher demand due to the covid-19 pandemic.

The National Association of Realtors® reported 6.69 million sales of previously-owned homes on a seasonally adjusted annual basis as of January. Low inventories of available homes and high demand for single-family homes continue to drive home sales during the pandemic. Rising home prices caused by high demand and low inventories of homes for sale created affordability issues in suburban areas as well as traditionally high-priced metro areas.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by eight basis points to 2.81 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.21 percent and were two basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.77 percent and two basis points lower than the prior week.

Weekly jobless claims data was mixed last week with 861,000 initial jobless claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 848,000 first-time jobless claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims fell to 4.49 million continuing claims as compared to the prior week’s reading of 4.56 million continuing jobless claims filed.

What’s Next

This week’s scheduled economic readings include S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, and data on pending home sales. The University of Michigan will issue its reading on consumer sentiment and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

For those who are thinking about buying or selling a home during the pandemic, they may feel like this is a difficult task. Even though it is true that this is going to be a challenge, people are able to increase their success rate by adapting to a new environment. When it comes to buying or selling a home during the pandemic, there are a few tips that everyone should keep in mind.

Many Showings Are Going To Be Virtual

Make sure that everyone is ready to provide a virtual tour or go on one themselves. Of course, everyone is currently living in an era of social distancing. Therefore, everyone has to make sure that they do not unnecessarily expose themselves to anyone. Virtual tours are a great way to adapt to this measure while still purchasing or selling a home. For those who are thinking about providing a virtual tour to someone else, make sure to take the time to explore all of the options available. Some software programs are going to be better than others.

Ensure There Is A Safe Way To Buy And Sell A Home

It is critical to think about other safety measures that people can take as well. Everyone has to make sure that they endear themselves to as many buyers as possible. In addition to providing virtual tours, it may also be helpful to provide hand sanitizer. Or, people need to make sure that they bring hand sanitizer. Of course, make sure to wear a mask at all times when someone is going to be within 6 feet of someone else. This is another important safety measure that everyone should take.

There Is Help Available During The Pandemic

Finally, it is also a great idea to note that there is financial help available. Lots of people have struggled during the pandemic. That is why there are financial resources available. Be sure to speak with a trained professional and figure out if there are ways to make the process of buying or selling a home just a little bit easier. This could end up saving someone a lot of time and money during the process.

Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders and a statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Falls In December

Homebuilder confidence in market conditions for single-family dropped by four points in December to an index reading of 86.  December’s reading was the second-highest on record after November’s reading. Component readings of the Housing Market Index also dropped. Builder confidence in current market conditions fell to 92 as confidence in single-family home sales within the next six months fell to an index reading of 85. Homebuilder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family developments dropped to 73; buyer traffic readings rarely exceeded 50 until recent months.

Regional Housing Market Index readings were also lower than in November. The Northeast, Midwest, and South reported readings three points lower than in November. The Western region’s reading dipped by two points month-over-month.

Fed Holds Key Rate Steady

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced no change to the current federal funds rate range of 0.00 to 0.25 percent. Citing severe economic challenges caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the FOMC statement indicated that economic forecasts would be subject to the course of the virus and related impacts on public health, the economy, and labor markets.

The Committee stated its monetary policy would be flexible in response to the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and an inflation rate of two percent. The inflation rate has fallen short of the Fed’s objective of two percent; FOMC members amended the inflation rate goal to two percent or higher to compensate for the impact of repeated readings under the two percent mandate.

Mortgage Rates Hit Record Low; Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported new record lows for average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged four basis points lower at 2.67 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.21 percent and were five basis points lower. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.79 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims rose to 885,000 first-time claims filed as compared to 862,000 new claims filed the prior week. 5.51 million ongoing jobless claims were filed; last week’s reading was lower than the prior week’s reading of 5.78 ongoing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Inflation Rate Rises in November

Inflation rose by 0.20 percent in November according to the federal government, but this reading fell short of the Federal Reserve’s goal of achieving 2.00 percent inflation annually. November’s year-over-year inflation rate was 1.20 percent. October’s inflation reading was flat and analysts expected inflation to grow by 0.10 percent in November.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, showed readings identical to the Consumer Price Index reading. November’s Core Consumer Price Index was impacted by lower food and fuel costs.

Supreme Court Hears Arguments in Shareholder Suit over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were put under the oversight of the Federal Housing Finance Agency after the Great Recession and resulting mortgage crisis. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments regarding shareholder assertions that oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is unconstitutional.

Mortgage Rates Mixed as Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported no change in average fixed mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.71 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was also unchanged at 2.26 percent.  Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.79 percent and were seven basis points lower than in the prior week. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and  0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims were higher last week with 853,000 new claims filed as compared to 716,000 first-time claims filed the prior week. Analysts expected 720,000 first-time claims last week. Ongoing jobless claims also rose with 5.76 million claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 5.53 million continuing claims filed. Increasing numbers of coronavirus cases caused higher than expected layoffs last week.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose in December to an index reading of 81.4. Analysts expected December’s reading to decrease to 75.5 based on November’s index reading of 76.9. As winter progresses and Covid-19 cases continue to rise, consumer sentiment toward economic conditions will likely decline.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic readings include reports from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions; the Commerce Department will release reports on housing starts and building permits issued. The Federal Reserve will issue its Federal Open Market Committee Statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to give a post-meeting press conference.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation and consumer sentiment along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve Board members addressed economic expectations resulting from the COVID-19.

Chair Powell said that there would be no quick fix for the economy and that the economy would suffer for four to six months until the pandemic slows. He also said that a COVID-19 vaccine would not be a panacea for the virus and said that “ the next few months could be challenging” as the virus spreads at a faster pace.

Inflation Stalls as Pandemic Progresses

The Commerce Department reported no growth in the Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index in October. The readings for both indices were identical with 0.00 percent growth, 0.10 percent growth expected, and September’s month-to-month growth of 0.20 percent. Medical experts predicted  that COVID-19 cases would surge as cooler weather arrived.

The cost of living rose from June to October, but this was a recovery from deep dips in consumer prices as the pandemic took hold. The year-over-year inflation rate slowed to 1.20 percent in October from September’s reading of  1.40 percent. Annual inflation was growing by 2.30 percent before the pandemic.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased by six basis points to 2.84 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two basis points to 2.34 percent and rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages jumped by 22 basis points to 3.11 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell last week to 709,000 filings. Analysts expected 731,000 new jobless claims based on the prior week’s reading of 751,000 initial jobless claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims were also lower last week with 6.79 million continuing claims filed. as compared to the prior week’s reading of 7.22 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index posted a lower reading of 77.0 in November as compared to October’s index reading of 81.6 percent and the expected reading of 82.3. The dip in the Consumer Sentiment Index reflected increased consumer concern as covid-19 cases rose,

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department reporting on housing starts, and building permits issued. Data on sales of previously-owned homes will also be reported.

Last week’s economic news included readings on construction spending, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee statement, and a press conference by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. Labor data on public and private sector jobs and the national unemployment rate were reported along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Residential Developments Lead September Construction Spending

High demand for homes continued to fuel home construction, but public and non-residential construction spending was slower according to the Commerce Department. Residential construction spending rose by 2.70 percent on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis while public construction spending decreased by -1.70 percent and non-residential construction spending dropped by -1.60 percent.

Changing priorities for home buyers including accommodations for work-from-home spaces and moving away from congested urban areas drove demand for  single-family homes. Commercial and public construction was sidelined as concerns over municipal spending and less revenue sidelined business and public construction spending. A new wave of COVID-19 cases also dampened commercial and public construction plans.

FOMC Statement and Fed Chair’s Press Conference

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve said it would leave the target Federal Funds range unchanged at 0.00 to 0.25 percent to promote access to business and personal credit. Factors contributing to the Committee’s decision included observations that demand for goods and services decreased and lower oil prices held down inflation. Committee members expected the spread of COVID-19 to impact the economy, employment, and inflation in the near term. The virus is expected to pose serious risks to economic forecasts over the medium term.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the economy continued to recover from its low in the second quarter, but the pace of economic improvement has since slowed. Travel and hospitality sectors were hard-hit due to requirements for social distancing and wearing masks; Chair Powell emphasized that following public health guidelines was the only way that the COVID-19 virus could be controlled.

Mortgage Rates Mixed as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported mixed movement for average mortgage rates with rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages three basis points lower at 2.78 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.32 percent and were unchanged. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.89 percent and were one basis point higher. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and averaged 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 751,000 last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 758,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were also lower last week with 7.38 million continuing claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 7.81 million ongoing claims filed.

Public and Private  Sector Job Growth Slows in October

ADP reported 365,000 private-sector jobs added in October as compared to 753,000 jobs added in September. The Commerce Department reported 638,000 public and private sector jobs added in October as compared to the prior month’s reading of 672,000 public and private sector jobs added. The National Unemployment rate was also lower at 6.90 percent, which was lower than the expected reading of 7.60 percent and the previous month’s reading of 7.90 percent.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include readings on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly updates on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted everyone and this includes the real estate industry. One of the biggest impacts that this pandemic has had involves the home lending process. Because many people are looking for ways to buy a home while engaging in proper social distancing measures, the industry has had to adapt. Learn more about some of the changes the COVID-19 pandemic has forced on the home lending process.

Homes Are Getting More Affordable

The demand for homes right now is high; however, homes are still more affordable than they have been in the past. Lenders are trying to find ways to encourage people to purchase homes because they have seen a drop in their business as well. As a result, many lenders are willing to provide potential homeowners with great offers and opportunities to purchase a dream home.

Online Applications Are Becoming More Common

Next, online applications are becoming more common as well. In order to help people buy a home while still engaging in social distancing, it is possible to complete the home application process online. This is usually provided through an intuitive system that provides clear instructions on what has to be submitted for the application process.

Buying Power Is Going Up

Because many homeowners and potential home buyers are realizing that now is a great time to buy, they are learning that they have a lot more power. They might be able to afford a larger home or carry out a home improvement project after buying their home. This provides more flexibility for homeowners.

Refinancing Is Becoming More Common

In addition to changes in the home buying process, there are changes taking place in refinancing as well. Many current homeowners are realizing that they have a unique opportunity right now as well. As a result, they are taking advantage of the opportunity to complete a refinancing deal to save money.

Home Lending Is Changing

These are just a few of the major changes that have taken place in the home lending process due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Anyone who owns a home or is thinking about buying a home should consider looking at their available options as well. There could be opportunities to save money.

Home price growth fueled by high demand for single-family homes was higher in July according to Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. Analysts said that millennials seeking to purchase homes and the continued exodus from large urban areas propelled rising home prices. Home prices grew fastest in the West and Southeastern regions.

While home prices grew moderately before the pandemic, high unemployment has not impeded rapid home price growth since the pandemic. Low mortgage rates and more demand for homes overcame consumers’ concerns about jobs and the economy. Analysts said that rapidly rising home prices could benefit homeowners struggling with mortgage payments as additional equity could provide more cash for relocation.

20-City Home Price Index: Three Top Cities in July

Home prices rose at the fastest pace in Phoenix  Arizona at 9.20 percent year-over-year. Seattle, Washington reported a home-price growth rate of 7.00 percent; Charlotte, North Carolina reported year-over-year home price growth of 6.00 percent. In July.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many workers to switch from commuting to their jobs to working from home. Home-buyers also looked for homes in less-populated areas. 16 of 19 cities reported in July’s 20-City Home Price Index reported a faster pace of home price growth than in June. Detroit, Michigan did not report home prices for the July 20-City Home Price Index.

Homeowner migration from congested cities to suburbs was confirmed by Robert Dietz, the Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders, who said: “…builders in other parts of the country have reported receiving calls from customers in high-density markets asking about relocating.” Building single-family homes in all price ranges would help ease the shortage of homes.

FHFA Reports Highest Home Price Growth Rate From May to July

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported a record price growth rate of more than two percent for the two months between May 1 and June 30. FHFA reports data on homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.