Lee Morof's Real Estate Blog

Last week’s economic reports included readings on inflation and retail sales; the Federal Reserve released its post-meeting statement from its Federal Open Market Committee. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Inflation, Retail Sales Rate Dip in November

The Commerce Department’s Consumer Price Index dipped in November to a growth rate of 0.20 percent as compared to October’s growth rate of 0.40 percent. Analysts expected inflation to slow to 0.20 percent growth.

Year-over-year inflation rose to 2.10 percent, which was its highest reading in a year. Analysts said rising rents, energy and healthcare costs caused the higher consumer inflation reading. November’s Core Consumer Price Index was unchanged at 0.20 percent growth. The Core CPI reading excludes volatile food and energy sectors.

Retails sales growth slowed to 0.20 percent in November as compared to October’s growth rate of 0.40 percent and expected growth of 0.50 percent. Retail sales exclusive of autos were also lower in November with a reading of 0.10 percent growth.

Analysts expected a reading of 0.40 percent growth; October’s reading for Retail Sales Excluding Autos showed 0.30 percent growth. Lower retail sales at the start of the winter holiday shopping season could signify cooling consumer confidence in the economy.

Fed Holds Steady on Key Interest Rate Range

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced no change to the target federal funds rate range at its meeting on Wednesday. The target range for the federal funds rate remained at 1.50 to 1.75 percent.

The Committee’s post-meeting statement suggested that FOMC members did not plan to change the federal funds rate in 2020 if economic conditions remain stable, but said that monetary policy decisions were flexible and could change as global and domestic economic conditions require.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average rates for fixed-rate mortgages last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was five basis points higher at 3.73 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged five basis points higher at 3.19  percent.

The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage was three basis points lower at 3.36 percent. Discount points rose across the board last week and averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims jumped to 252,000 last week, which surpassed expectations of 220,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 203,000 first-time claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include the National Association of Home Builders’Housing Market Index and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The National Association of Realtors® will release data on sales of pre-owned homes and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Have you ever seen a scientific experiment with things growing in a Petri dish? This is a metaphor for how neighborhoods grow as well. Things in a Petri dish grow towards the areas that have more nutrition to attract them and repel from areas that have bad things that they do not want.

A popular neighborhood does a similar thing. It may have boundaries that are certain street or other physical barriers. Nevertheless, if the area builds its popularity, it tends to grow and might also cause an improvement in the surrounding areas.

Homes In Adjacent Neighborhoods

An adjacent neighborhood is one that is right next to another one. For example, in the Los Angeles Metro Area, just to the west of Beverly Hills is Century City. Century City is a fine area so it is usually called by its name. However, properties in Century City are also “Beverly Hills – Adjacent.”

This nomenclature is a bit like identifying a “used car” as a “pre-owned vehicle.” It is a marketing technique to say a home is located in a neighborhood adjacent to a popular one. However, those homes are indeed special. If the popular area appreciates significantly, this may have a positive impact on the neighborhoods surrounding it.

Mapping Adjacent Neighborhoods

It is a terrific strategy to look at the opportunities for buying a home in an adjacent area near the best neighborhood in town.

Use Google maps to find the map that includes the best area of town and what is around it. Then, research the listing prices for homes that are within the best neighborhood and those that are in the adjacent areas. For comparison, look for homes of the same style, type, and size

Zoom in on the satellite view of the streets to get a close look at the places just inside and just outside the official boundaries of a great neighborhood. It may be surprising to find areas that have a significant pricing differential, even just for a few blocks on a few streets. Those particular areas are worth further exploration.

Barriers To Progress

Be aware that physical barriers are stronger than psychological ones. A river, a very wide street, a public park or another major physical barrier can permanently separate a neighborhood from another adjacent one. These may block a growth opportunity.

What to look for are adjacent areas where the barrier between the neighborhoods is psychological and there is nothing at all very different between the great neighborhood and two blocks down the street. These few blocks in the adjacent neighborhood are where one might discover a treasure. It is possible to find a home that has a slightly better price. It might appreciate at the same rate as the best neighborhood next door or faster to catch up with other similar homes.

Summary

Using the adjacent neighborhood strategy may help avoid buying a home only in the most expensive areas that may be over-priced. Many find that the adjacent areas are just as nice and a home there may be a better value. 

Work with a real estate agent that knows the area well. Your agent should be able to help you discover the up-and-coming adjacent areas and properties that might offer an enhanced investment opportunity.

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced its unanimous decision not to change to the current target federal funds range of 1.50 to 1.75 percent. The committee’s customary post-meeting statement said the decision not to change the Fed’s target range for federal funds was based on factors including a strong labor market, moderate economic growth, continued job growth, and low unemployment.

Economic readings reviewed prior to the FOMC meeting held Tuesday and Wednesday supported the achievement of the committee’s dual mandate to achieve maximum employment and maintain price stability.

According to the post-meeting statement issued on December 11, FOMC members consistently review incoming global and domestic economic news to determine if the Fed’s monetary policy should be adjusted. Chair Powell signaled that the federal funds rate may not change in 2020, but repeated the FOMC’s frequently-repeated caveat that monetary policy is subject to change as world news and economic conditions may warrant.

Expected And Realized Economic Conditions Contribute To Fed’s Monetary Policy

FOMC members reviewed their expectations of economic performance and compared them with actual readings in evaluating economic performance as connected to the Federal Reserve’s dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability. Low unemployment and overall inflation readings near two percent supported the Committee’s decision not to change the target range for the federal funds rate.

Fed Chair Expects Strong Economy To Continue

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a scheduled press conference that he and his colleagues in the Federal Open Market Committee are confident that strong economic conditions will prevail over the next few years. Mr. Powell said that the Fed expects the national unemployment rate to remain near a 50-year low at approximately four percent; he said that the national unemployment rate is expected to remain low in the near-term. Chair Powell said that the economy has remained strong for 11 years; this is the record for the longest run of positive economic conditions.

Inflation remains below the Fed’s objective of 2.00 percent; Chair Powell said that the overall inflation rate averaged 1.30 percent, but core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors averaged 1.60 percent. Chair Powell said that the core inflation reading was a more reliable indicator of long-term inflation.

Jobs and wages increased in lower to middle-income communities, but the business and manufacturing sectors weakened. Mr. Powell suggested that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged in 2020 unless economic and news events indicate that a change in the current monetary policy becomes necessary.

“Baby Boomers,” defined as people who were born between 1946-1964, are the wealthiest generation to ever retire, as well as the largest. According to U.S. Census Bureau projections, the population of people 65 and older will increase by 36% between 2013-2023 and is expected to outnumber children by 2034 — for the first time in U.S. history.

Interestingly, in the decade since the Great Recession,people aged 50-59 are increasingly bucking tradition and moving to urban areas. As Boomers retire en masse, they are headed for major cities, favoring amenities-loaded condos over large single-family homes with manicured lawns. What is responsible for this change in older adults?

Home Maintenance Considerations

One of the largest factors causing boomers to migrate to cities is home maintenance. Once adult children are out of the home, many people downsize into more manageable houses. Larger suburban homes take a lot of work between routine home maintenance, not to mention larger emergency repairs. 

It makes sense then, that people 55 and older accounted for the largest increase in the rental home segment from 2007-2017, with a 38% rise in those older than 55 and a 43% increase in people older than 65. In stark contrast, the increase in rentals in people aged 54 and under in the same time period was less than 10%. 

Creature Comforts

Another thing responsible for older adults moving away from the suburbs and into more urban areas is the abundance of amenities large cities can offer them. Exceptionally walkable cities such as those where universities are located tend to cluster upscale condos and apartments near major shopping outlets and public transportation lines, as well as a multitude of options for shopping, dining, cultural experiences, and medical services. 

Cities like Lawrence, Kansas and Bloomington, Indiana have taken note of the trend — and the fact that boomers have about 70% of all disposable income in the United States — and have taken steps to lure retirees in, offering recreation opportunities specific to seniors and making public transportation and preventive healthcare more accessible.

This trend of boomers moving back into large cities, while fascinating, makes perfect sense and is expected to continue for the foreseeable future as cities make themselves more and more appealing, as well as accessible.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in listing your current property, be sure to contact your trusted real estate professional.

A “seller’s market” happens when there are more potential buyers than homes for sale. In a seller’s market, people looking for a home may feel frustration and not easily find the home that they want. When they find a home for sale that they like, the seller of the home may receive multiple competitive offers at the same moment.

The seller is in an excellent position when this happens. Sellers can pick from the purchase offers to choose the one they like the most. Even if an offer is the same as another one, sometimes it is not the offer chosen by a seller.

Causes Of A Seller’s Market

Seller’s markets arise because a particular area is very desirable. There can also be limitations that do not allow any further development of residential properties in an area. Well-established neighborhoods in up-scale market areas are typically likely candidates for becoming a seller’s market. Easy credit financing is another contributing factor. 

Check the median sales price as a percentage of the listing price for an area. If it is greater than 100%, this is a seller’s market.

Buying A Home In A Seller’s Market

If you must live in a certain area, and there are extremely compelling reasons for buying a home in a seller’s market, then expect to pay more and work harder to get the type of home that you want. Here are some tips about how to buy a home in a seller’s market:

1. Work With A Top Real Estate Professional: You want to go into this challenge along with the best professional help that you can find. You want to choose a top real estate agent that specializes in the market area that you desire. They should know the neighborhood intimately and represented both buyers and sellers in that market.

2. Pre-Approved Credit Commitment: Apply for mortgage approval before looking for a home to buy. Request more than the amounted needed and pay for a written loan commitment that guarantees the financing is both approved and legally-committed for the time, plus a little more, that you need to find a home to buy.

3. Move Fast: Make a purchase offer as quickly as possible when a new home listing comes up that meets your criteria.

4. Cash Earn Money Deposit: Offer the seller earnest money in cash that is a significant amount to accept the purchase price you offer. By cash, we mean physical dollar bills of around $5,000 or more. Cash makes people sign a deal.

5. Offer More Money: If you want a specific home, make your purchase offer 1% or more than the asking price. Also, offer in writing to match any other competing offers plus a bit more. You may get into a bidding war and have to pay much more to get the home. 

6. Off-Market Properties: Seek to buy a property that is not yet for sale. Ask your agent to call people who they sold a home to before. Ask everyone in the local area if they know of one that is like the one you want. Knock on doors of homes that are one you might like to buy and ask the owner if they will sell the home.

Summary

To get the home you want, try to be flexible with the basic criteria of what type of home it is. Work with a great real estate agent. Move fast and use our tips to be competitive with other potential homebuyers.

Last week’s economic reports included readings on construction spending and multiple labor sector reports including private and public sector jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on average mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Falls 0.80 Percent in October

Commerce Department reports on construction spending said that spending fell by 0.80 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $1.29 million. Analysts expected construction spending to increase by 0.40 percent based on September’s original reading of 0.50 percent growth, which was later revised to -0.30 percent.

Less construction of multifamily homes and apartments caused a decrease in October construction spending. Private construction spending fell by -1.00 percent in October; residential construction fell 0.90 percent as multi-family construction spending fell 1.60 percent after a 2.10 percent dip in September. Construction spending on single-family homes increased by 1.60 percent.

Low mortgage rates, a strong job market, and rising wages contributed to a strong demand for homes. Short inventories of available homes continued to pressure home builders to build more homes; construction of homes jumped 3.80 percent in October.

Mortgage Rates, Mixed, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported no change in the average rate of 3.68 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.14 percent and were one basis point lower than for the prior week.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages fell four basis points on average to 3.39 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages and 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell from the prior week’s reading of 213,000 claims to 203,000 claims filed last week. ADP reported 67,000 private-sector jobs added in November.

The federal government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report offset the dismal reading for private-sector job growth. 266,000 public and private sector jobs were added in November and surpassed expectations of 180,000 public and private sector jobs added.

Approximately 55,000 were accounted for as auto workers returned after a strike. 156,0000 public and private sector jobs were added in October. The national unemployment rate dropped to 3.50 percent in November and matched the reading for unemployment posted at the end of 1969.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation, retail sales and the post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a press conference after the FOMC statement. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

There are a lot of steps that people need to take when buying a home. One of the most common issues that people discuss is the down payment. Most banks will require a down payment so that they aren’t the only ones taking on the risk of buying a home. The common question people have is how much of a down payment they should apply.

The Rule Of Thumb

Most people have heard about placing 20 percent down on a house as a solid rule of thumb. This number has been passed down from prior generations who purchased houses with similar down payments.

On the other hand, the price of housing has risen over the past few decades and this down payment might not be possible for some people. While 20 percent down might work for some people, it might not be feasible for others. 

Other Considerations

There are several additional factors that homebuyers need to think about. First, how big of a down payment is the bank requiring? Some banks might not lend to someone at all if they don’t reach a certain threshold. In other cases, the lender might ask someone to purchase something called private mortgage insurance, often abbreviated PMI.

This is an insurance policy that the borrower will have to purchase for the lender. If the borrower loses the home in foreclosure, the lender gets its money back through this insurance policy. Obviously, borrowers do not want to have this added expense. This is where the down payment is important.

In addition, banks might also be willing to lower the interest rate on the mortgage if the borrower increases the size of the down payment. With a lower interest rate, this can save someone a substantial amount of money down the road. Try to see if the lender will lower the interest rate in exchange for a larger down payment.

Deciding The Down Payment

These are a few of the many factors that homebuyers should think about when thinking about the down payment. While nobody wants to pay more than they should, the down payment is only one of the financial aspects people need to consider.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in listing your current property, be sure to contact your trusted real estate professional.

When considering buying a home in an “as-is” condition, the buyer takes all the risk of anything needed to bring the property back up to current building codes and make it ready for occupation or re-sale. There can be bargains in as-is properties if you know how to hunt for one. 

How To Find As-Is Bargain Properties

To find these properties, look for those that sell at auction for tax liens or other reasons for governmental asset-seizure. The might be distressed as-is properties that are foreclosures, short-sales, or estate sales.

A popular home-flipping strategy is to buy an as-is property at a price that is far below market value, make the repairs necessary, and then resell the home for a price that covers the repair costs plus makes a profit.

Tips On Buying As-Is Properties

It is a guessing game when buying an as-is property. There may be very unpleasant surprises for repairs that are very costly and are not obvious. Hidden problems include major plumbing troubles, severe electrical system repairs, shifting or broken foundations, dry rot, and termite infestations.

Here are some tips about how to improve the chances of getting a better deal when buying an as-is property:

Home Inspection: Conduct a professional home inspection. This is insurance to avoid a serious mistake. It is worth the few hundred dollars to pay for one, even if you do not get the property. 

Work With A Contractor: Being a contractor yourself is great. Many contractors buy and flip houses when not working on projects for others. The next best thing is working or partnering with a contractor. Just doing a walk-through with a remodeling contractor helps identify things that need to fix. Then, the estimates for the renovation can be done more accurately.

Major Systems: Assume the major systems will need work or replacement. The biggest unknown expenses in a renovation come from the heating, cooling, and other major systems.

Check Drains: Running water into the sinks for a few minutes is an easy way to see if the drains are blocked.

Roof: Based on the home’s age, assume the roof needs replacement if the roof is more than 20 years old. Inside the home look for evidence of roof leaks that left behind stains on the ceilings and walls that are signs of water damage.

Probe For Termites: Drill tiny deep holes into wood, in an inconspicuous area, to test for termite infestation and/or pay for a pest control inspection.

Foundation Problems: Go into the crawl space under a home to look for foundation problems, such as major cracks and shifting. Another indicator of ground movement and settling, which may be a problem, is that the doors in the home are not level or plumb and do not close properly.

Summary

It is possible to get a bargain when buying an as-is property; however, it is not a certainty. If you are just starting with flipping houses, it is better to partner with professionals to get helpful guidance. Work with a qualified real estate agent who specializes in distressed properties and partner with a reputable building contractor to increase the chance of success.

Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index showed 3.20 percent national home price growth in September, which was 0.10 percent higher than August’s reading of 3.10 percent. The 20-City Home Price Index showed the continued impact of exorbitant home prices on both coasts as home price growth slowed in high-cost areas and smaller markets experienced upward pressure on home prices as home buyers were seeking affordable homes.

Phoenix, Arizona led the 20-City Home Price Index with 6.00 percent year-over-year growth in September. Charlotte, North Caroline had 4.60 percent growth in home prices and Tampa, Florida rounded out the three cities with highest year-over-year home price growth with 4.50 percent growth. The 20-City Home Price Index has documented migration of home buyers away from prime metro areas to interior and southern states. Analysts said that lower mortgage rates helped affordability in some cases, but home price growth outpaced stagnant wage growth and inflation.

FHFA Data Shows Home Buyers Leaving High Priced Areas

Federal Housing Finance Agency reporting for the third quarter of 2019 supported Case-Shiller’s trends. Home prices in mid-sized cities are rising as buyers relocate to areas where home prices are accessible to moderate-income buyers. FHFA reported year-over-year price growth for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac slipped to 4.90 percent. This was the first time home price growth dipped below 5.00 percent growth since 2015.

FHFA reported home prices in Boise, Idaho grew by 11.10 percent year-over-year; home prices in Tucson, Arizona grew by 10.30 percent year-over-year in the third quarter. Lynn Fisher, a senior economic advisor for FHFA, said that home price growth rates in California and New York were lower than the national average.

The top three states with the largest year-over-year home price growth rates in the FHFA 20-City HPI were Idaho with 11.60 percent; Maine and Arizona tied with Utah with 7.90 percent home price growth. States with the lowest rates of home price growth were Illinois with 1.90 percent year-over-year growth, Connecticut reported 2.20 percent home price growth and Maryland home prices rose by 2.40 percent. FHFA reported that home prices have risen for 33 consecutive quarters; this is good news for homeowners, but also creates affordability challenges for would-be buyers facing high home prices and strict mortgage qualification standards.

Be sure to consult with your trusted Realtor and home mortgage professionals regarding your real estate concerns and transactions.

Those who are looking at buying a home need to think about whether or not they are truly ready for this responsibility. When someone takes out a mortgage, this is frequently the largest loan someone will ever apply for in their life. Furthermore, owning a home also means homeowners insurance, real estate taxes, home maintenance, and home repairs.

There are a few signs that signal someone is not ready to buy a home. Identifying and rectifying these situations ahead of time will ensure that someone is the right position to take on the responsibility of homeownership.

Too Much Debt

One of the biggest signs that someone is not ready is own a home is too much personal debt. A mortgage is another (albeit different) form of debt. It someone already has a large amount of debt, they might not be able to handle an additional loan.

Some forms of debt that people might have include student loans, credit card debt, and car loans. Cutting down this debt before applying for a mortgage will make someone more competitive when applying for a mortgage.

Not Enough Savings

In addition to reducing debt, it is important to build up savings as well. First, people need to have enough money for the down payment. It is highly unlikely that a lender is going to hand out a loan to someone who is not able (or willing) to put up any of their own capital.

In addition, savings are important for potential home maintenance or home repair costs. Owning a house is a major financial investment. People should be able to put up some of their own money when buying a home.

Location Is Not Determined

People move from place to place. It is a reality of school, employment, relationships, and more. At the same time, it is hard for someone to buy a house they don’t know where they want to live.

While this might seem obvious, this factor is frequently overlooked. Think about where “home” is going to be before deciding to buy a home. Consider the overall cost of living in that location, the potential commute, and the potential HOA.

Buying A Home

It is important for everyone to think about whether or not they are truly ready to buy a home before applying for a mortgage. This is a significant responsibility that should not be taken lightly.

Talk with a home mortgage professional to discuss the options that will get you on the path to homeownership. Although it may take time and planning, buying a home is absolutely possible for everyone. When you are ready, your trusted real estate professional can help you find your new home.