Lee Morof's Real Estate Blog

Last week’s economic reports included releases on inflation, consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Inflation and Consumer Sentiment Dip

The Commerce Department reported slower growth in inflation for September. The Consumer Price Index for September showed a growth rate of 0.10 percent. Analysts projected a reading of 0.20 percent growth, which was based on August’s reading of 0.20 percent.

This was the sixth consecutive month-to-month increase in the inflation rate. Year-over-year, inflation has grown 2.30 percent as compared to the prior year-over-year rate of 2.70 percent.

Analysts said that rising rents and homeownership costs drove consumer prices higher, but consumer prices in other sectors eased.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, was unchanged at 0.10 percent growth month-to-month. Analysts expected CPI to increase to 0.20 percent.

According to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October, Consumer confidence slipped to an index reading of 99.00 as compared to September’s reading of 100.1 and expectations for an October reading of 100.6.

October’s reading exceeded the average reading of 98.50 for 2018.Analysts attributed October’s lower reading to consumer concerns over their finances as inflation rises and income remains relatively unchanged.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages rose 19 basis points to 4.90 percent. 15-year fixed rate mortgage rates were 14 basis points higher and averaged 4.29 percent.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.07 percent and rose by six basis points. Last week’s average mortgage rates were the highest rates seen since April 14, 2011.

First-time jobless claims rose by 7,000 new claims filed to 214,000 new claims. Analysts expected a reading of 205,000 new claims filed based on the prior week’s reading of 207,000 first-time claims filed.

Last week’s reading was attributed to effects of Hurricane Florence, but economists said that the reading was close to low readings seen in the late 1960s.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on sales of pre-owned homes, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department reports on housing starts and building permits issued. The Fed’s FOMC meeting minutes will also be released, along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

Reality TV shows about house flipping make it look easy. But behind every lucrative renovation project, there are factors that impact profitability such as buying price, labor costs, unforeseen setbacks and perhaps most importantly, location.

There is no escaping the old real estate adage of “location, location, location.” Home-flipping entrepreneurs must take into account whether polishing up a blighted building is in a viable resale neighborhood. One of the location factors some house flippers are following is the trend in tech jobs.

Because the tech industry does not necessarily rely on interstate highways, commercial hubs or seaports, computer-oriented businesses are taking advantage of once vibrant manufacturing areas that have fallen on hard times. Property values in these areas seem to be trending behind some of the nation’s hotspots despite having many desirable community living aspects such as parks, walking trails, waterfronts, restaurants, and a vibrant arts scene.

Rust Belt Resurgence

Following the decline in industrial work in areas throughout Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Illinois and others, once highly sought after cities and towns saw mass population declines. The lack of good-paying jobs left large numbers of wonderful homes and commercial buildings under-occupied.

Tech companies have been putting some economic lifeblood back into these communities in recent years. House flippers have been hot on their heels to renovate properties as high-paying workers migrate into the communities. Some of the numbers coming out of cities such as Pittsburgh and Buffalo have been impressive.

In Pittsburgh alone, house-flipping profits exceeded 162 percent in the second quarter, and Buffalo topped 100 percent. Considering the national average for this sector stands at about 44 percent, chasing tech outfits appears to be rewarding. Pennsylvania is reportedly now the second best place for home-flipping profits at 132.7 percent statewide.

Tech Trends Nationwide

The former mill and mining areas of the Rust Belt are among the top trending regions for flipping homes as Internet-based companies set up shop. There are also smaller pockets of tech-driven opportunities for contractors and real estate professionals to turn profits.

In New England, small cities such as Providence, RI, are seeing an upsurge in old mills being converted into online and tech business spaces. In Massachusetts, technology jobs have been on the rise in the region north of Boston. Former manufacturing hubs are seeing properties move as high-paying jobs increase. The opportunities for home flippers are growing.

Nashville, Tennessee, is reportedly outpacing tech-heavy Seattle in terms of employment growth. The professional networking website LinkedIn reported that 85 in 10,000 members relocated to Nashville through September. Approximately 118 in 10,000 moved to Austin and 96 to Denver. It appears the country is in the midst of tech-industry migration.

This trend is likely to continue, and house-flipping entrepreneurs are likely to have robust opportunities in these emerging housing markets across the country.

Contact your trusted real estate professional to learn about the current market trends in your area.

You probably already know that qualifying for a mortgage can be the biggest hurdle — aside from actually finding that dream property — along the path to home ownership.

Rather than agonizing about it, however, there are some positive actions you can take in advance to help you realize your dream.

Take A Close Look At Your Budget

If you don’t currently operate with a comprehensive household budget, get started now to analyze your income and monitor your spending habits. There’s no better way to prepare for home ownership than by being realistic about how you spend your money. If you don’t have a regular savings program, or if you’re constantly short on cash prior to the next payday, take steps to remedy the problem. Plan for the future by getting the present in check.

Gather Employment And Earnings Records

Mortgage lenders want to see stability and commitment. Finding and organize your employment records to show a consistent earnings pattern and, hopefully, a record of growth, both in terms of income and responsibility. Simplify the task of gathering required documents by collecting all records in a binder or notebook that can easily be copies when it’s time to submit them to a lender. It’s a confidence-building step as well.

Organize Your Banking Records

Lenders will not only want to see employment records, but they will require copies of all bank and investment accounts as well. Again, by being organized and getting a handle on your dollar inflow and outflow, you’ll gain insights into your individual spending habits and make the job easier for a mortgage specialist.

Make Copies Of Your Tax Returns

Tax returns confirm and validate all the other financial information that you will be required to supply. Typically, returns for the past two or three years will be required. If you own a small business or have income in addition to that from paid employment, make copies of those records as well.

Put A Halt To Spending

Perhaps the best way to demonstrate your serious intent to purchase — and pay for — a new home is by curtailing your spending on impulse purchases and expensive entertainment. This is not the time to buy a new car, book an exotic vacation, purchase major electronics or even home furnishings, or commit to time payments of any sort. Frugality should become your mantra in the months leading up to loan qualification.

Monitor Your Credit Cards

If your credit rating is within acceptable limits, do what you can to make all payments on time, pay down balances, minimize new purchases and demonstrate your continuing ability to “live within your means.” Do not apply for new credit cards, no matter how tempting the offers, because increased account activity can adversely affect your FICO score. In addition, if you have a blip on your credit report, do what you can to repair it prior to making a mortgage loan application, or be prepared to explain the circumstances, in detail and in writing.

Applying for a loan need not be scary. Understanding the financial reality is a great benefit.

Securing your financing is an important part of the home buying experience. Your trusted real estate agent is ready to help you every step of the way.

Many people associate the fall months with cooler temperatures and changing colors. But another defining characteristic of fall is that the days become shorter. Yes, there’s limited daylight, as the sun rises later and sets earlier.

Noting this, it’s important to take any exterior lighting into consideration if you’re listing your home this fall. It’s important because you want your home to have a welcoming vibe to it, but with the potential for showings to occur in limited daylight, some modifications and new light installations may be necessary in order for it to stand out. What’s more is that exterior lighting can serve as a theft deterrent.

Here’s a closer look at some fall outdoor lighting tips to enhance the appeal of your home this fall:

Go Solar

Solar lighting is an effective, sustainable way to highlight the landscape of your yard, and illuminate paths and walkways. Just make sure that you’re placing solar lights in areas that receive lots of sunlight during the day so that they have plenty of energy after the sun goes down.

Border Patios, Decks

If your backyard features a patio, deck or gathering space away from the home, don’t miss an opportunity to border it with lights to better highlight said features. If your deck or patio has railing, consider stringing lights throughout it.

Here’s another neat idea: If you have a patio umbrella, consider purchasing lights that fit within it. You should be able to purchase an umbrella solar light set from your local hardware store, which does wonders in providing accent lighting for this area. Even if the umbrella isn’t staying with the house, it can still make for a nice touch.

Don’t Shine Lights On Windows

Any lights that shine on windows will only hinder your home’s appearance. That’s because they’re likely to create a glare. Make sure that any lighting that you incorporate is well balanced and only goes to help the home’s overall appearance. On a similar note, make sure that any lighting doesn’t clash with each other.

Consider Uplighting

Uplighting, or shining lights so that they are hitting your home at an upward angle, is a creative way to make your home appear larger. Additionally, uplighting can help accentuate unique architectural features. Be sure to uplight from each side of the house for the best overall look.

Light For Safety

Finally, you should also be arranging lights in a way that promotes safety on your property. For instance, if there are any steps or inclines, make sure that the areas are well lit to avoid the potential for injury.

Contact your trusted real estate professional for many other tips to make your home showing a success!

Reality TV shows have energized everyday people to dive into the real estate market and make money flipping houses. The dramatic presentation and profitable end results make the industry seem like a sure thing. But house-flipping, like any industry, has its share of challenges.

Television often props up ratings by showing industry pros overcoming adversity and getting a big win. But reality, unlike Reality TV, is filled by behind-the-scenes unknown obstacles. While house-flipping has emerged as a viable niche profession, these are some of the common misconceptions entrepreneurs may want to consider before wading into the business.

Perfect Properties Are Available

On television, the home-flipping team often settles on that perfect property that will yield amazing results. It’s important to understand that’s a Hollywood formula designed to improve viewership.

In reality, the perfect home is like finding a unicorn. Most flipping projects deal with less-than-perfect properties. What remains important for home-flippers is that the property enjoys structural integrity and the basic elements are in place.  

Projects Run On Time

Watching a home-flipping show makes the process seem quick and easy. After all, many of the shows run between 30 minutes and one hour. Your project time will be considerably longer.

Starting with a listing search through the initial buy, even industry insiders spend months securing a property. After that, the permitting process can be onerous and renovations are commonly met with unforeseen setbacks. Whether you discover mold behind walls or structural issues, remodeling generally experiences delays. Once you get everything copacetic, inspection waiting periods can be excessive. Projects rarely run on time.

Construction Budgets Are Just Math

Watching a TV personality whip out a calculator and add up remodeling costs makes it look simple. There are square footages, materials, labor and other tangibles. Home builders and remodeling professionals are quick to dispute such simplicity because too many “intangibles” exist.

Consider replacing the clapboard on the exterior of a home. One might expect to calculate the square footage and order an equal amount of material. But an experienced contractor might tell you to start by ordering an additional 10 percent to account for waste. That’s because a percentage of material that gets cut might not be reusable.

After accounting for that 10 percent, add another 10 for human error. Many types of clapboard require builders to set the commercially-cut end to the interior only. When inexperienced workers make erroneous cuts, increased waste can be produced. This theme runs across a variety of materials and other aspects of construction. It’s unlikely your crew will be filled with 25-year veterans. Mistakes are more common and costlier than you might expect.

ROI Can Be Measured Accurately

Beginner home-flippers tend to look at the cost of the property, add updating costs and the average market value of similar homes as the basis for determining return on investment (ROI). But selling prices can be more fickle than one might expect.

Today’s home buyers are looking for certain things from newly renovated properties. The math no longer amounts to adding total rooms, bathrooms, square footage and location. While the country is in the midst of a seller’s market due to a significant inventory shortage, home-flippers would be wise to calculate ROI based on a sliding scale.

If the property lacks the conveniences favored by Millennials or other groups buying up homes, it could sell for less than expected. That’s another reason why home-flippers are wise to enlist the guidance of a local real estate professional to gain a reasonable grasp on home trends and pricing.

Your trusted real estate professional is ready to help you find the right project property if you are ready to take on the challenge of house flipping!

Last week’s economic reports included readings on construction spending and labor reports on public and private-sector job growth. The national unemployment rate was released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and weekly jobless claims.

Construction Spending dips in September, but Residential Construction Spending Rises

Construction spending rose 0.10 percent in September, but residential construction spending fell 0.70 percent month-to-month. Construction spending was 4.10 percent higher year-over-year. January through August construction spending was 5.30 percent higher than for the same period in 2017.

Analysts estimated a shortage of approximately four million homes; which accentuates demand and drives prices up. In recent years, builders have concentrated on higher-end homes, but analysts said that a shift to building super-affordable homes may be in the works. High home prices and ever-increasing rents are squeezing moderate-income families; providing more affordable housing options could lessen demand and help home price growth to normalize.

Mortgage Rates Little Changed, New Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported little change in mortgage rates; 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged one basis point lower at 4.71 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was also one basis point lower at 4.15 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.01 percent and were four basis points higher. Discount points averaged 0.40 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell last week to 207,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 213,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 214,000 claims filed. Analysts said that fewer claims were filed as the impact of Hurricane Florence diminished.

Labor Reports: Job Growth Mixed as Unemployment Rate Nears 49 Year Low

Commerce Department readings on public and private-sector job growth showed more private sector jobs, while the government reading for public and private sector jobs dropped/ ADP reported 230,000 more private-sector jobs in September; the government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 134,000 new public and private sector jobs as compared to 270,000 new jobs in the prior month. Analysts expected 168,000 new public ad private sector jobs and said that the shortfall in job growth for September was a consequence of Hurricane Florence.

The National Unemployment Rate fell to 3.70 percent in September, which was the lowest reading in nearly 49 years.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include readings on inflation, core inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Opinions differ about whether home buyers are best served by purchasing an older home or new construction.

New homes enjoy that “new home” smell and the idea that you are the very first occupant can be very appealing. On the other hand, older homes resonate with nostalgia and many architectural design elements are no longer commonly used.

While some people feel strongly one way or the other, it’s a lot like comparing apples and oranges. The right home for any home buyer is the one that fits your lifestyle. Consider these pros and cons of new and older homes when making your decision.

Construction Differences

Home builders often tout the state-of-the-art aspects of new construction. Perhaps the biggest pro to new construction is the integration of smart and energy efficient technologies.

Today’s homes often come tech-ready with the ability for homeowners to control the environment through mobile apps. Solar panels are more common than ever, and new kitchen, HVAC and other necessities benefit from the latest advancements. Aside from being tremendously convenient, many of the new technology and materials can save you a significant amount of money.

On the flip side, older homes often require updating to include smart technologies. Gaining those conveniences could mean laying out a substantial amount of cash.

But don’t think for a moment that new construction somehow outpaces older homes in terms of energy efficiency. Materials used to build houses decades ago tend to be more durable. Items like thick, hardwood flooring were once commonplace. Today, they are considered high-end materials.

The Bottom Line: New construction offers modern conveniences while older homes showcase vintage materials.

New And Older Construction By The Numbers

One argument for buying new construction leans on the cost of upkeep.

An American Housing Survey reportedly pointed to new construction homeowners spending less on maintenance than their older construction counterparts.

The report promulgated by the Census Bureau indicates that 73 percent of people who owned a home four years old or less spent under $25 monthly on monthly maintenance. Only 11 percent spent upwards of $100 while 26 percent of older homeowners topped this cost. When routine maintenance exceeds $1,000 annually, that’s significant.

On the other side of the coin, older homes often come at a discounted price.

New home listing prices reportedly exceed those of similar older homes by upwards of $100,000 or 30 percent on average. This initial cost should be a strong consideration when doing the long-term math on homeownership. At $1,000-$1,200 additional cost annually, an older homeowner may have to live in the home for a very long time before it became less cost-effective.

The Bottom Line: Homeowners either pay on the front or the back end.

Homeowners Insurance Coverage

One of the common misconceptions about coverage stems from the idea that higher-priced new homes cost more to insure. This is often not true.

When taking out a policy, homeowners often insure the home based on the purchase price. This may satisfy the lender, but it may not be adequate to rebuild in the event of a total loss. New construction estimates tend to be fairly accurate because materials and labor costs haven’t changed significantly.

On the other hand, older homes are often made from materials that are considered specialty of high-end on today’s market. That means rebuilding an older home to its former luster could far exceed the current value. If that nostalgic feel is important, homeowners may need to insure the structure at a higher replacement cost.

The Bottom Line: Both types of homes could require similar coverage.

Regardless of what experts say about new and older construction, it’s important to consider a wide range of pros and cons and determine the home that’s right for you. Speak with an experienced real estate professional for detailed information on the properties that you are considering.

Many of us are guilty of plopping on the sofa and binge-watching reality TV home flipping shows. The allure of buying and selling homes for big profits with no boss looking over our shoulders has major lifestyle appeal.

Shows like “Love it or List it,” “House Hunters,” “Flip or Flop” and others make it look incredibly simple. Even when they face adversity such as rotted wood or bad pipes, the way the reality TV stars overcome adversity is more of an inspiration than a deterrent. And plenty of everyday people do manage to succeed in the house-flipping industry.

But many of the myths these ratings-driven shows perpetuate could use a little busting.

Consider these four common house-flipping myths and the true facts behind them.

1: Three Viewings And A Closing

Reality TV shows tend to show viewers the industry professional looking at no more than three homes before making a flipping decision. That may play into the limited time slot they have but it’s far removed from reality.

True Facts: It’s not uncommon for potential home buyers to fall head over heels for the first property they view. After all, buyers often already like the neighborhood, school system, and home style. But the National Association of Realtors reports that the average person looks at about 10 properties before making a decision. Home flippers are additionally tasked with developing a return on investment plan. Three and done is not reality, it’s just TV.

2: Homes Linger On The Market

TV shows follow home flippers who seem to have all the time in the world before making an offer.

True Facts: Most of the purchase and sale process is simply staged for television. The homes have been pre-purchased before filming. Today, we are experiencing a seller’s market, meaning there are more buyers than inventory. Homes move quickly.

3: Open Houses Are A Sure Thing

On real estate reality TV shows, the fully renovated home is amazingly staged and sells during the first open house. Multiple offers are often floated.

True Facts: Only in a perfect world or on TV does this happen. Matching properties with potential buyers requires hard work from real estate agents. They must align purchase limits, pre-approved house shoppers, family size, school systems, location, and other expectations. Most homes are sold by real estate professionals setting up appointments and making multiple showings.

4: Homeowners Make Fast-Sell Decisions

On real estate reality TV, homeowners seem to take just moments to decide whether to love it or list it. This certainly doesn’t mirror the process of ordinary homeowners.

True Facts: Homeowners sell their properties for a wide range of reasons. These may include downsizing, retirement, relocation or an expanding family among many considerations. The vast majority of people mulling over a sale also take a long look at their next home options. It’s completely unrealistic to think someone made such a major life decision in five minutes or less.

Reality real estate TV shows are wonderfully entertaining to watch. So is science fiction. Enjoy your binge-watching and speak to a real-life real estate professional before making any major decisions. 

Home price growth slowed to its lowest pace in nearly a year according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. National home price growth averaged 6.00 percent year-over-year as compared to 6.20 percent growth in June.

The 20-city home price index rose 0.10 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.90 percent year-over-year. Slowing home price growth was attributed to buyer fatigue and rising inventories of available homes.

Las Vegas Home Price Growth Tops 20-City Home Price Index

Las Vegas, Nevada topped the 20-City Home Price index with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 13.70 percent. Las Vegas home prices crashed during the recession but continued to recover as the economy improved.Seattle, Washington home prices rose 12.70 percent year-over-year in July; San Francisco, California held third place in the 20-city Home Price Index with year-over-year home price growth of 10.80 percent. Five cities posted higher home price growth rates than in June.

Freddie Mac Predicts Further Slowing In Home Price Growth For 2018 And 2019

Prior to the release of July’s Case-Shiller data, Freddie Mac analysts said that home buyer budget limitations coupled with more homes for sale caused home price growth to slow. Freddie Mac projected home price growth of 5.50 percent for 2018 and 4.50 percent growth in 2019.

FHFA, the agency that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, released its home price index for July and reported lower home price growth in July. After posting steady year-over-year growth rates of 6.80 percent for April, May and June, July home price growth dipped to 6.40 percent. Data in home price data reported by FHFA includes homes connected with mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac.

While slower growth in home prices are good news for potential home buyers, rising mortgage rates, strict mortgage credit requirements and competition with cash buyers continue to create headwinds for home buyers who depend on mortgage financing to fund their home purchases.

For the greatest market advantage, be sure to contact your trusted real estate professional if you are interested in buying a new property or considering listing your current property.

A young long-haul trucker driver once took an elder’s advice and invested all of his money into real estate. Even though he was seldom at home to enjoy the fruits of his labor, he hired a property management company to handle the properties. The advice that stuck with the driver was simple. “They’re not making any more of it, land that is.”

In terms of growing personal wealth, the real estate market may fluctuate, interest rates change, and the GDP can bounce like a ball. But, land is permanent. That may seem like a simplistic view of wealth management. Maybe it is. But that trucker retired early with multiple investment properties and a reasonably wealthy man.

His portrait in wealth management success highlights the notion that real estate remains a strong financial driver. The next logical question is whether or not now is the time to build a powerful real estate portfolio.

Current Market Conditions

Real estate investment does not necessarily follow the popular stock market thinking about buying low and selling high. In fact, investors such as the trucker had no plans to sell at all. That being said, the current real estate trends are widely considered a “seller’s market.” Are they really?

With Millennials and soon Generation Z buying up homes, inventory remains lower than demand. That naturally has resulted in an uptick in listing prices. Couple the supply and demand issue with a Fed raising rates and one might think this is a bad time to buy. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Buying rental properties are long-term investments. Buyers would be wise to do the math on how much the monthly mortgage, insurance, taxes and overhead measure against the potential revenue. Some property owners do their math based on 10 months rather than 12 to account for unexpected expenses. If the math works, it could be a valuable asset.

Real Estate Less Risky Than Stocks

Return on investment in real estate has the potential to far outpace stock buys. Consider that when you purchase a stock, things outside your control impact value and dividends. Think for a moment about how Elon Musk turned Tesla stocks into a roller coaster ride due to a few odd tweets and media interviews.

Owning property insulates investors from many external forces. Over time, rental revenue pays down the note. This allows owners the ability to siphon off money or leverage equity for additional real estate buys. With measured determination, your wealth management portfolio could include multiple properties that are paid off at retirement age. It worked for a truck driver who took some simple advice from an elder.

There’s little doubt that real estate remains a strong asset for increasing personal wealth. If you are considering a purchase, be sure to contact your trusted real estate professional as soon as possible.