Lee Morof's Real Estate Blog

Last week’s economic releases included readings on the NAHB Housing Market Index, sales of pre-owned homes, and housing starts. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence in Market Conditions Holds Steady

The National Association of Home Builders reported an index reading of 67 for September, which matched August’s reading. Growing concerns over impacts of tariffs on building material costs have slowed builders’ confidence in current and future market conditions.

Components of the NAHB Housing Market Index include readings on current conditions, which gained one point to 74; builder confidence in market conditions over the next six months gained two points to a reading of 74. The HMI reading for buyer traffic in new housing developments was unchanged with a reading of 49. Readings for buyer traffic are typically below the benchmark index reading of 50. Readings over 50 indicate that most home builders are confident about housing market conditions.

Builder confidence is considered an indication of future housing supplies as builders may adjust their construction plans on market conditions and building costs. The Commerce Department reported higher housing starts in August with a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1,282 million starts. Analysts predicated a rate of 1.249 million starts based on July’s reading of 1.168 million starts.

Sales of Previously-Owned Homes Unchanged

The National Association of Realtors® reported sales of previously-owned homes held steady in August, with homes sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.34 million sales. Analysts expected a reading of 5.37 million sales. Home sales have faced headwinds in recent years with high demand and low inventories of available homes driving up home prices faster than inflation and wage growth. Recently rising mortgage rates also impacted affordability and sidelined would-be buyers with moderate incomes.

Mortgage Rates Rise; New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher rates for fixed-rate mortgages with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose five basis points to 4.65 percent. The average rate for 15-year mortgages also rose by five basis points to 4.11 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages dipped by one basis point to 3.92 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell to 201,000 claims filed as compared to expectations of 208,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 204,000 new claims filed. This was a 49-year low; analysts cited Hurricane Florence and overall economic expansion.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on home prices from Case-Shiller, new and pending home sales and inflation. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included readings on consumer credit, inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Fed Reports Consumer Credit Jumps in July

The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit rose from $9 billion in June to $17 billion in July. Analysts said a majority of consumer credit was issued for education loans and auto loans. June’s reading was revised downward to $8.50 billion from the original reading of $10.2 billion.

Credit card debt increased by 1.50 percent in July after declining by – 1.40 percent in June. Non-revolving consumer debt rose by 6.40 percent in July after growing 4.0 percent in June. July’s reading was the largest increase in eight months. The Fed’s Consumer Credit report does not include mortgage loans.

Inflation increased by 0.20 percent in August, which fell short of analyst expectations of 0.30 percent growth. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by -0.10 percent and was lower than the expected reading of 0.20 percent growth. July readings for inflation and core inflation were 0.20 percent.

Mortgage Rates and Consumer Sentiment Rise as New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates for the third consecutive week. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose six basis points to an average of 4.60 percent; rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged seven basis points higher at 4.06 percent and mortgage rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.93 percent and were unchanged from the prior week. Discount rates were reported at 0.50 percent for fixed-rate loans and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell last week to 204,000 claims filed against expectations of 210,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 205,000 first-time jobless claims filed.

Consumer sentiment rose in September. The University of Michigan reported an index reading of 100.8, which surpassed the expected index reading of 97.0 and the August reading of 96.2.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled releases include readings from the National Association of Home Builders, The National Association of Realtors® on sales of pre-owned homes and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included readings on construction spending, along with public and private-sector jobs growth. The national unemployment rate, weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Rises in July

July construction spending ticked up to 0.10 percent from June’s negative reading of -0.80 percent. Year-over-year, construction spending was 5.80 percent higher than for July 2017.Public-sector construction accounted for most of the growth and increased by 0.70 percent as private-sector construction projects decreased by -0.10 percent.

Month-to-month spending readings can be volatile, but analysts said that construction spending for the first seven months of 2018 were up 5.20 percent from the same period in 2017. July’s slower spending rate suggested that construction projects are slowing.

Given ongoing shortages of available homes, this is not good news for housing markets. High demand has driven home prices up, but affordability has become an issue in areas where home prices outpace inflation and wage growth.

Mortgage Rates Rise as New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week; the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose two basis points to 4.54 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.99 percent and were two basis points higher.

Rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged eight basis points higher at 3.93 percent. Analysts said that home prices continued to rise as demand for homes softened Higher home prices and mortgage rates sidelined first-time and moderate-income home buyers as slim inventories of homes for sale sidelined buyers who could not find homes they wanted to buy.

First-time jobless claims were lower last week with 213,000 claims filed. Analysts expected 212,000 new claims to be filed based on the prior week’s reading of 213,000 first-time filings. The national unemployment rate held steady at 3.90 percent.

ADP payrolls dropped to 163,000 private-sector jobs in August as compared to 217,000 private-sector jobs added in July. The Commerce Department’s Non-Farm Payrolls reported 201,000 public and private-sector jobs added in August, which fell short of the expected reading of 212,000 jobs added and the prior month’s reading of 213,000 jobs added.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic readings include reports on inflation, retail sales and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic releases included readings from Case-Shiller on home prices, pending home sales and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth, Pending Home Sales Dip

Home price growth slowed in June according to Case-Shiller’s national home price index. Home prices rose 0.30 percent from May and were 6.30 percent year-over-year as compared as compared to 6.40 percent. In May. Analysts have predicted stabilizing home prices for months and June’s reading indicated that home prices may slow after surpassing inflation and wage growth in recent times.

The 20-City Home Price Index rose 0.10 percent in June and 6.30 percent year-over-year in June; Las Vegas, Nevada home prices toppled Seattle, Washington’s hold on highest home price appreciation with a reading of 1.40 percent in June and 13.00 percent year-over-year. Seattle home prices grew by 0.70 percent and 12.80 percent year-over-year. San Francisco, California home prices grew by 0.50 percent in June and 10.78 percent year-over-year.

Pending home sales, which indicate future home sales, were -0.70 percent lower in July; as compared to 1.00 percent growth in June. Lower home sales are typically expected as peak buying season ends, but short supplies of homes and high demand, which has driven home prices beyond affordability for first-time and moderate-income home buyers.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported a higher average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages, which rose one basis point to 4.52 percent; rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.97npercent and were one basis point lower.  Rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 3.85 percent and were three basis points higher on average.

First-time jobless claims also rose last week with 213,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 212,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 210,000 new claims filed. The University of Michigan reported a lower consumer confidence reading of 96.2 for August as compared to July’s reading of 97.9. Analysts expected a reading of 95.4 for August.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include readings on construction spending, labor reports on public and private sector job growth and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic readings included reports on sales of new and previously-owned homes, and weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

Sales of New and Pre-owned Homes Falter in July

Home sales were lower in July, with new and pre-owned home sales falling short of projections and June sales. According to the Commerce Department, new homes sold at an annual rate of 627,000 sales as compared to 640,000 new home sales projected and a pace of 638,000 homes sold in June.

Downward revisions for previous months contributed to a lower sales pace reported in July; but the average price of a new home was $3278,700 in July, which may indicate that home prices are tapping out. July prices dropped 1.70 percent from June but were 12.80 percent higher year-over-year.

Sales of previously-owned homes were also lower in July with an annual pace of 5.34 million homes sold as compared to the expected reading of 5.40 million sales and June’s reading of 5.38 million sales. July’s reading was the lowest in two and a half years and indicated that low inventories of available homes coupled with high home prices has sidelined would-be buyers who can’t find or afford homes they want to buy.

The National Association of Realtors ® reported that Inventories of homes were 0.70 percent lower in July after rising in June. Sales of pre-owned homes were 0.50 percent lower in July and were unchanged year-over-year.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week; the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell two basis points to 4.51 percent. Mortgage rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.98 percent and three basis points lower than the prior week.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.82 percent and were five basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell to 210,000 claims filed as compared to an expected reading of 215,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 212,000 first-time jobless claims.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings from Case-Shiller’s Home Price Index, pending home sales and inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reports included readings from the National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department releases on Housing Starts and Building Permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were released, along with a monthly report on consumer sentiment.

NAHB: Home Builder Housing Market Index Drops 1 Point

August’s reading for the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index dropped one point to 67. This was the lowest reading for home builder confidence in housing market conditions in 11 months. Analysts said that trade wars are causing concern among builders due to higher costs for building materials. Higher costs will be passed on to home buyers, many of whom are already challenged by rising home prices and strict mortgage approval requirements.

Housing starts reached 1.168 million on an annual basis in July; analysts expected 1.270 million starts based on June’s reading of 1.158 million starts. Building permits issued increased in Jul with 1.311 million permits issued on an annual basis. June’s reading was 1.292 permits issued. Lower numbers of available new homes were a potential problem for housing sector, but demand remains high.

Mortgage Rates and New Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week; the rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell six basis points to 4.53 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgages fell four basis points to 4.01 percent and rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged three basis points lower at 3.87 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 212,000 new claims as compared to expectations of 215,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 214,000 new clams filed. The latest reading approached the level of new jobless claims seen as a post-recession low First-time unemployment claims indicate levels of lay-offs and are viewed by analysts as an indicator of job market performance.

The University of Michigan reported that consumer sentiment reached its lowest reading since 2006. Analysts said that consumer concerns were concentrated among the bottom third of income ranges surveyed. Rising consumer costs caused August’s consumer confidence index to slip to 95.3 as compared to an expected index reading of 98.5. July’s consumer sentiment reading was 97.9.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on new and pre-owned home sales and minutes from the most recent meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reports included readings on job openings and inflation along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Job Openings Hit Third Highest Reading on Record

Job openings held steady at 6.70 million in June, which was the third highest reading since reporting started in 2000.

Analysts said that the high number of job openings combined with low unemployment rates indicates healthy labor markets. Fewer jobs were available in transportation, utilities and warehousing, but jobs in education increased.

Job quits remained at 2.20 percent for the fourth consecutive month. Quits are considered an indicator of worker confidence in job markets.

Inflation Inches Up

Inflation rose by 0.20 percent in July according to the Consumer Price Index. While analyst expectations were met, rising housing costs offset a decline in energy prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy readings, held steady at 0.20 percent as compared to the same reading for analyst expectations and for June.

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.90 percent year-over-year, which matched June’s reading. The less volatile Core CPI, which excludes inflation readings for food and energy, rose by 2.40 percent year-over-year and was the highest   reading for core inflation since 2008.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Lower

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was one basis point lower at 4.59 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was three basis points lower at 4.05 percent. Rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 3.80 percent, which was three basis points lower than for the previous week.

First-time jobless claims fell to 213,000 new claims filed and were lower than the expected reading of 217,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 219,000 new claims filed. The less volatile monthly reading fell by 500 new claims to 214,250 first-time jobless claims.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic readings include reports from the National Association of Homebuilders, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Last week’s economic reports included readings from Case-Shiller, Commerce Department reports on pending home sales and construction spending and an FOMC statement. Labor sector reports on job creation and the national unemployment rate were released along with the monthly Consumer Confidence Index. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Holds Steady in May

Home price analysts Case-Shiller reported national home prices rose 0.40 percent in May and were 6.40 percent higher year-over-year. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index was 0.20 percent higher in May and 6.50 percent higher year-over-year. Only seven cities reported home price growth in May, but home prices were higher than gains reported in April.

Home price gains were highest in in Seattle, Washington with a seasonally-adjusted year-over-year gain of 13.60 percent: Las Vegas, Nevada; reported seasonally-adjusted home price growth of 12.60 percent. San Francisco, California reported a seasonally-adjusted annual home price growth of 10.90 percent. Analysts said that home price growth may be slowing, but it grew faster than wages and inflation, which continued to present challenges for first-time and moderate-income hone buyers.

Pending home Sales Grow as Construction Spending Dips

The National Association of Realtors® reported an index reading of 106.9, which was 2.50 percent lower than in May. June was the sixth consecutive month that year-over-year pending sales were lower than in the preceding year-over-year period. Pending home sales increased by 0.90 percent in June as compared to a negative reading of -0.50 percent in May.

Construction spending fell by 1.10 percent in June as compared to 1.30 percent growth in May. Analysts expected construction spending to rise by 0.90 percent in June. Home builders continued to face headwinds such as rising materials costs, labor shortages and slim supplies of buildable lots.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced its decision not to raise the federal funds rate, which held steady at a range of 1.75 – 2.00 percent. This news did not stop average mortgage rates from moving up. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose six basis points to 4.60 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage also rose six basis points to 4.08 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages also rose six basis points and averaged3.93 percent.

Weekly jobless claims rose to 218,000 new claims and fell short of analyst expectations of 220,000 new claims filed, which was based on the prior week’s reading of 217,000 new claims.

Unemployment rate Falls Below 4 Percent

July’s National Unemployment Rate dipped to 3.90 percent and matched analyst expectations. In May, unemployment reached 4.00 percent.

Jobs grew in July with ADP posting 219,000 new private-sector jobs and the Commerce Department reported 157,000 new public and private sector jobs added in July. Analysts expected 195,000 new jobs to be added to Non-Farm Payrolls based on 248,000 mew jobs added in June.

The University of Michigan reported that its Consumer Confidence Index gained 0.30 points for an index reading of 127.40 percent.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on consumer expectations, July job openings, inflation and weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Last week’s economic readings included reports on sales of new and pre-owned homes, mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

New Home Sales Slide; Pre-owned Home Sales Meet Expectations

Commerce Department reported lower sales of new homes in June. Sales were expected to reach 666,000 sales on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, but the actual reading slipped by 5.30 percent to a pace of 631,000 new home sales. Analysts cited higher building costs, home prices and mortgage rates sidelined some buyers.

Concerns over inadequate inventories of available homes also impacted sales of newly-built homes. New homes sold at a rate 6.90 percent higher year-over-year, but analysts cautioned that home price appreciation and demand may be at or near their peak.

The National Association of Realtors® reported an annual pace of 5.38 million sales of previously-owned homes for June, which matched analysts’ expectations. May’s reading was 5.41 million sales of pre-owned homes.

Analysts caution that Commerce Department readings are subject to adjustment due to the relatively small number of home sales used to represent all sales of pre-owned homes.

Mortgage Rates and New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week with incremental increases in average mortgage rates. Rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages were two basis points higher at 4.54 percent; rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.02 percent and were two basis points higher.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were one basis point higher and averaged 3.87 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims rose to 217,000 claims filed; this reading fell short of the expected reading of 219,000 new claims but was higher than the 208,000 new claims reported for the prior week.

What‘s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic releases include readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and readings on pending home sales and construction spending. Labor reports including public and private sector jobs growth and the national unemployment rate will also be released.

Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be published.

Last Week’s economic readings included reports on inflation, mortgage rates, new jobless claims and consumer sentiment.

Inflation Slows in June

The Consumer Price Index for June inched down to 0.10 percent growth in June as compared to May’s reading of 0.20 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.20 percent, which matched expectations and May’s reading of 0.20 percent.

Year-over-year inflation rose by 2.90 percent. This was the highest rate of growth in six years. Inflation increased by a year-over-year rate of 1.60 percent in the prior year.

While inflationary growth signals strengthening economic conditions, it can also cause challenges for consumers if inflation outpaces wage growth. In recent years rapidly, rising home prices have outstripped inflation and wage growth.

Mortgage Rates Rise as New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week for the first time since June. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose one basis point to an average of 4.53 percent; The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose three basis points to 4.02 percent.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose 12 basis points to 3.86 percent. Discount points averaged 0.40 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 6/1 adjustable rate mortgages. Analysts said that global economic trends caused the 10-year Treasury yield to rise as investors moved away from stocks.

First-time jobless claims fell by 18,000 claims to 214,000 new claims filed; this approached the lowest level of new jobless claims in 49 years. Analysts said that current low levels of new claims showed the healthiest jobs markets since the dot com boom in the 1990s.

Fewer first-time jobless claims suggested that more workers are confident about quitting their current jobs for new jobs. Improved consumer confidence in job security could mean that more consumers will be ready to buy homes.

Consumer sentiment also dropped in July according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.  Consumer sentiment fell to an index reading of 97.1 as compared to expectations of 98.9 and June’s reading of 98.2.  Concerns over recently imposed tariffs caused consumer sentiment to dip.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on retail sales, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.