Lee Morof's Real Estate Blog

Last week’s scheduled economic reporting included readings on home builder sentiment, housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims were also released

NAHB: Homebuilder Confidence Crashes as Coronavirus Impacts Construction

Homebuilder sentiment concerning housing market conditions dropped significantly in April according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index.

April’s index reading of 30 was the largest month-to-month drop recorded since the Housing Market Index started 30 years ago. Homebuilder confidence was 42 points lower than the March reading of 72 and was the lowest reading since June 2012.

Index readings over 50 indicate that most builders are confident in current market conditions.

Sub-index readings also fell considerably in April; builder confidence in current market conditions dropped from 79 to 36. Builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months dipped to an index reading of 36 in April as compared to the March reading of 75.

Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family housing developments dropped from an index reading of 56 in March to a reading of 13 in April; builder sentiment readings about buyer traffic don’t usually exceed an index reading of 50 but had done so in recent months. Homebuilders also said that federal assistance for builders wasn’t distributed consistently;  Builders need federal financial help to maintain payrolls and other expenses.

Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued dropped in March. Housing starts progressed at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.216 million starts as compared to February’s pace of 1.564 million housing starts.

Analysts expected a March reading of 1.290 million housing starts. Building permits issued were lower at 1.353 million permits issued as compared to 1.452 million permits issued on an annual basis in February. Analysts expected a March reading of 1.250 million building permits issued.

Mortgage Rates Near All-Time Lows as Initial Jobless Claims Slow

Freddie Mac reported mixed results for mortgage rates last week; rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.31 percent and were two basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.80 percent and were three basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages fell by six basis points and averaged 3.34 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims were lower last week but remained much higher than readings reported before the COVID-19 outbreak. 5.25 million initial claims were filed, which surpassed expectations of 5 million new claims filed. 6.60 million claims were filed the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include readings on new and existing home sales, consumer sentiment and weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

One might wonder if the continued improvement in the access to online information about properties for sale has removed the need for working with a qualified real estate agent or broker. It has not.

The trends reported by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) are interesting. Buyers are finding a home to purchase by searching online in larger numbers than before. In the NAR survey of homebuyers, the home was found online by the buyer for more than half of the homes purchased, with only 28% of the homes purchased suggested to the buyer by a real estate agent.

Even so, NAR also reports that 87% of buyers made their home purchase with the help of a real estate agent or broker. This trend is increasing. In 2001, only 69% of home buyers bought a home with the involvement of a real estate agent or broker. Why the upward trend of working with a real estate professional when buying a home?

The explanation is surprising. One is the cost of buying a home that is for sale by owner (FSBO) may be very close to the price of the same type of home bought with the help of a real estate agent. An FSBO home sale may put a little more money in the pockets of the seller but little of that savings on the real estate commission goes to the buyer. Moreover, the FSBO process creates a disadvantage when trying to market a home without a real estate professional’s help. These trends are making FSBO properties decrease.

Additionally, using a real estate professional may help the transaction go more smoothly. A real estate agent handles the buying and selling of properties all the time. A homebuyer does this less often and therefore may not have the skills to manage a real estate transaction effectively.

Summary

When buying a home, it is the preference of the vast majority of buyers to work with a real estate professional. The process is likely to be easier with less chance of costly mistakes. The price paid for the home will likely be around the same as trying to close a deal without the benefit of using a real estate agent.

For sellers of a home, working with a professional real estate agent comes along with advice about market pricing, how to stage a home for better resale value, and the benefits of using effective marketing strategies that get the home seen by more prospective buyers.

For buyers and sellers, it becomes clear that working with a real estate agent is vastly preferable. This is why so many are using the services of a licensed professional to buy or sell a home.

Millennials are the first generation in America that will probably not be able to do as well as their parents. In the United States, there is not as much upward mobility as there was in the past. What is the cause of this?

CNN reports that Millennials have more college degrees than their parents. They also have an enormous amount of student loan debt. Many millennials have lower-paying jobs than their parents had at the same age when adjusted for inflation. Spending patterns changed as well, due to the high cost of living.

Finding The Money

Saving is not easy. The net worth of Americans, who are from 18 to 35 years old, decreased by 34% since 1996. Even though millennials are financially savvy, the 2008 global financial crisis made it difficult to find jobs and made saving for many nearly impossible.

Those who have been able to put aside some money in the last ten years are lucky if they have $8,000 in savings, which is the average for those millennials trying to save for a home purchase.

Soaring Home Prices

By 2018, the real estate market recovered from the 2008 collapse. In most American cities, housing prices are going up significantly. The home prices surpassed pre-crash levels and now continue to rise. Soaring home prices make buying a home very challenging.

What To Do?

For most millennials, the best choice is to continue to live with their parents and use the lower cost of living as an opportunity to put away enough money for the required down payment to buy a house. Many plan to live very frugally and to save for up to five years if they want to buy a home of their own.

For others, they are developing co-ownership plans, where millennials plan to share home buying with more than one person. In these deals, they become the landlord and the tenants of a multifamily property that they buy together.

The Math

The median home price in America is $226,800. First-time buyers, who qualify, can get FHA-backed mortgage financing with as little as 3.5% down. Still, that is $7,938 just for the down payment. There is also the need to have 2% to 5% of the loan amount for closing costs, which can add up to $10,943.

Financial prudence recommends having at least three months of living expenses in savings to cover any unexpected temporary emergencies, like losing a job. Add another $12,000 for this contingency. This means to safely buy a home at the median price, with a low-down-payment loan, a millennial may need to have as much as $30,881.

For conventional financing, with 20% down, the numbers are much higher. For that type of financing, a millennial needs about $66,432.

Summary

Millennials face significant challenges in homeownership that are unique to their generation. For these reasons, many are delaying homeownership for at least five years and living with their parents longer, to save more money, to make their dream of homeownership come true in the more distant future.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in refinancing your current property, be sure to contact your trusted real estate professional.

Some clever millennials are teaching the older boomers a new way to invest in real estate, which goes by the name of “house hacking.”

What Is House Hacking?

House hacking has nothing to do with computers, although you may go on the Internet to find candidates for real estate investments suitable for hacking. The goal of house hacking is to acquire a multifamily rental property, live in one part of it and rent out the other parts for enough rental income to cover most, if not all, of the expenses of owning the property.

Live Rent-Free

As the on-site manager of a property that you own, you do not have to pay any rent. If you are clever, and the rental market is robust in the area that you choose for house hacking, then the rental income from the other units in the multifamily property will be sufficient to cover the property’s expenses. Then, you live rent-free.

Finding A Hackable Property

Multifamily properties, up to four units, are the best candidates for house hacking. A two-story townhouse that divides into two separate living spaces, a duplex, a triplex, or a small apartment building may be suitable.

Cash Flow

Calculate the cash flow from the portions of the property that rent to others. If the rent covers all the expenses then the property is said to have a positive cash flow. That is the goal. Have some funds set aside to cover any downtime when a unit is vacant between renters.

Financing

Owner-occupied properties qualify for lower financing rates than non-owner-occupied properties, which are held purely for investment.

Landlord Headaches

As the owner/landlord you will deal directly with any tenant relations and problems. If a pipe breaks in the middle of the night, you are the one who will have to deal with the problem. Be sure to screen tenants thoroughly and maintain the property. Some do not like dealing with tenants; however, if you are careful when selecting tenants and handle any problems professionally, this work provides an excellent experience for understanding further real estate investments to build up your portfolio.

Summary

House hacking came about especially for those from the younger generation of millennials simply because buying a property is very challenging on one income and even difficult on two incomes. If you consider the payment of rent by others as part of the total income that supports a property, the math may work out better. When the numbers work out, you may have found an investment opportunity with house hacking. Work with a qualified real estate agent who specializes in multifamily properties for the best results.

If you have paid attention to the news recently, you have probably heard about the coronavirus pandemic which also goes by the name COVID-19. Those who are exposed to the virus might be asked to place themselves in quarantine. Some states have even told their residents to shelter in place. While this infection has forced everyone to change the way they live their lives, there are still some home improvement projects you can tackle during quarantine to put your free time to use.

Jump On Spring Cleaning

One of the first home improvement projects people need to tackle is spring cleaning. Spring is right around the corner so it is time to sort through items that aren’t needed anymore. Start with the wardrobe closet and figure out what is going to be worn during the warmer months, what can be put into storage, and what can be donated. Then, move to the kitchen. Take a look at the drawers and see if there is anything that can be put away. Try to pull out the separators can clean the drawers as well. Finally, move to the living room and declutter anything that isn’t needed anymore. This is going to make the home feel more open, which is important during quarantine.

Repurpose A Room In The Home For A Gym

If you or your family are going to miss going to the gym, it is time to repurpose a room to act as an indoor space to exercise. Think about using the bonus room or basement as an athletic area. Furthermore, you can even save money on gym costs. Try to move chairs and coffee tables out of the way. If possible, put down some rubber flooring, an old mat, or even a few towels to prevent from staining the rug. If you are going to use a jump rope, make sure that nothing valuable is in the way. Try to shift items to make plenty of space for push-ups, sit-ups, jump rope, and free weights.

Home Improvement During Quarantine

It is important for people to follow the advice of medical professionals during the pandemic. Being quarantined is not an ideal situation, but these are only a few of many home improvement projects that can be accomplished during your time at home. 

Last week’s economic reports were limited due to closures connected with coronavirus regulations. The Federal Reserve did not issue minutes for the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting as the meeting was canceled.

Inflation readings were released; weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were released along with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

Consumer Price Index Falls In March

The Consumer Price Index dropped by -0.40 percent in March; this was its biggest decline in five years. Lower inflation was largely due to falling fuel prices.

The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, fell by  -0.10 percent in March as compared to 0.10 percent growth in February.

The year-over-year inflation rate fell to 1.50 percent growth as compared to February’s year-over-year inflation rate of 2.30 percent.

Products including toilet tissue and disinfectant supplies have disappeared from many store shelves; analysts said that manufacturers of household staples use a steady approach to production and were not prepared or able to meet skyrocketing demand caused by  COVID-19.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Little Changed

Freddie Mac reported no change in 30-year fixed mortgage rates that averaged 3.33 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was five basis points lower at 2.77 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were unchanged at 3.40 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points averaged 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims grew by 6.60 million claims last week; this was just shy of the previous week’s reading of 6.90 million claims filed. Before the COVID-19 outbreak, new jobless claims were typically reported in the mid-200,000 range.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflected consumer concerns about the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak. April’s index reading was 71.0 as compared to the March reading of 89.1.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the NAHB Housing Market Index, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Retail sales data will be released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

It can be a tremendous challenge to suddenly be stuck at home during the COVID-19 crisis. For those who are in an area of the country where there is a “shelter in place” order, this can feel very much like house arrest. If there are children stuck at home as well, this could be enough to make the entire family go stir crazy.

It can be hard to come up with ways to have fun when there is a lot of fear and anxiety in the air; however, here are a few great ways that families can have fun, grow closer, and bond during a challenging time.

Take A Virtual Tour Of A Museum

There are a handful of museums and aquariums around the country that are offering people the opportunity to take a virtual tour of their exhibits. These museums and aquariums are feeling the sting of the pandemic as well. They have gone out of their way to allow people to take a look at the numerous educational exhibits they have to offer over the internet. This can be a great way for a family to take a trip to somewhere exciting, take a look at some awesome exhibits, and learn about something new.

Make Videos Together

One of the most popular apps today is called TikTok. This is a social media platform where people make creative, funny videos, edit them, and share them with their followers all in one place! These videos are usually only a few seconds long and are layered with music. Think about funny poses, creative dance routines, and more! 

Build A Puzzle Together

Sometimes, the greatest joys are in the simplest pleasures. There are countless puzzles out there and many of them have thousands of pieces. They will keep the entire family busy for days to come. Then, once the puzzle is done, it can be glued together and framed. This can serve as a tribute to the time when the family had to band together during a difficult time.

Get Creative

These are a few creative ideas that families can put to use during the pandemic. They will bring the family together through bonding experiences that will last forever.

By now, it should be apparent that this COVID-19 (Corona-virus) pandemic is going to be here for several months. It is already causing the market to plummet and is disrupting jobs all over the country. Many people who work as hourly employees (or are independent contractors) are starting to suffer. As people’s budgets start to feel the squeeze, this is exactly the time that people should be relying on an emergency fund; however, for those who don’t have one, it is time to start saving.

How To Create An Emergency Fund

Even though cash assistance from the government might be coming soon, this is not going to be enough to get people through the crisis. To start building an emergency fund, it is important to take a look at the regular income first. Try to figure out how many shifts are going to cut and estimate what money is left (unless you are a salaried employee).

After this, take a look at other possible sources of credit. Know the limits on the card and figure out to what extent these cards can be drawn out. If there is an income tax refund coming, plan for this; however, remember that the government might be behind.

Finally, try to cut spending where possible. Remember that vacations should be postponed, given travel restrictions. Most restaurants are going to close, so try to shop at the grocery store instead. Finally, consider asking the bank to put a stop on mortgage payments. These are all great ways to save immediate money.

Save What Is Left

Finally, after figuring out all of the expenses, subtract this from the expected monthly income over the next few months. Whatever is left should be socked away into an emergency fund. It is critical to have this fund put away in case a repair is needed on the house or if someone gets laid off. 

Other Ideas To Consider

Finally, while this is not advisable, people might be able to cut retirement contributions to help with the emergency fund. It is better to save for the future when possible, but this can help people save money in a pinch, if needed. Take these tips to heart over the next few months and build an emergency fund.

Federal housing agencies and government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are responding to the COVID-19 outbreak with multiple relief programs for homeowners experiencing hardship due to illness and job loss.

60-Days Forbearance on Home Mortgages Owned or Backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac

Many U.S. home loans are owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Homeowners can determine if your loan is connected with Fannie Mae here.here. Please check here to check if your mortgage is affiliated with Freddie Mac.

CARES Act Provide Relief for Eligible Homeowners

The federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act provides two protections for homeowners:

• Payment forbearance for homeowners impacted by the COVID-19 emergency. Forbearance periods up to 12 months may be approved based on individual hardship.
• Foreclosure and other legal actions are stopped for 60-days. 

Forbearance may require a lump sum payment of deferred payments after the forbearance period or deferred payments may be added to the back of a mortgage, but fees may not be added to the loan balance.

Loan Modifications

Mortgage servicers may provide modification of loan terms to assist homeowners impacted by COVID-19. Modification terms can include:

• Reduction of mortgage interest rate
• Extension of the loan repayment term.
• Capitalization of unpaid principal and/ or interest to principal balance; this means adding unpaid amounts to the mortgage balance.

Contact your mortgage servicing company as soon as you know you will miss a mortgage payment or payments Relief programs usually require documentation verifying financial hardship. Mortgage servicers are experiencing high volumes of calls; you may need to call multiple times for assistance.

Mortgage Assistance for Non-Government Owned Loans

If you have a conventional mortgage that is not owned or backed by a government agency, please call your loan servicing company and ask about mortgage relief provisions. If your loan is covered by private mortgage insurance (PMI), ask your loan servicer if that company can help with relief options.

State and local agencies may offer housing relief options to homeowners and renters. Certified credit counseling agencies can also help with determining budgeting needs and local resources in addition to working with unsecured creditors toward reducing payments on credit card debt and personal loans.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on pending home sales, Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, and Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on national unemployment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Pending Home Sales Slow in February Before Coronavirus Took Hold

The National Association of Realtors® reported fewer pending home sales in February as the coronavirus gained traction. Pending sales rose by 2.40 percent in February as compared to January’s growth rate of 5.30 percent. Before the outbreak, pending home sales gained momentum in all U.S. regions.

Pending home sales are sales for which signed purchase contracts were signed, but sales were not completed. Nationally, year-over-year pending sales in February were 9.40 percent higher than in 2019. Regional pending home sales all posted higher growth; The West reported  4.60 percent growth in February.

Pending home sales rose 4.50 percent in the Midwest and 2.80 percent in the Northeast. The South posted 0.10 percent growth in pending home sales.

Pending home sales typically indicate future completed sales, but the coronavirus pandemic was expected to suppress home sales as state and local authorities implemented “shelter in place” rules and all but essential business operations shut down.

Mortgage Rates Mixed  as New Jobless Claims Skyrocket

Freddie Mac reported lower fixed mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.33 percent and were 17 basis points lower. Mortgage rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.82 percent and were 10 basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.40 percent and were six basis points higher.

New jobless claims were unprecedented at 6.60 million first-time claims filed. Analysts expected 4 million new claims as compared to the prior week’s reading of 3.30 million initial jobless claims. The coronavirus pandemic negatively impacted job growth with the government’s Non-Farm Payrolls reporting 701,000 fewer public and private-sector jobs in March as compared to 214,000 jobs added in February.

ADP reported 27,000 fewer private-sector jobs in March as compared to 179,000 private-sector jobs added in February. The national unemployment rate rose from 3.50 percent in February to 4.40 percent in March. Analysts expect new jobless claims to rise in months ahead as the coronavirus spreads and more employers close their doors.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on job openings, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released. Please note that reporting may not appear as scheduled due to work stoppages caused by the pandemic.